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Prediction for CME (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-21T16:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32090/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T18:47Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 19:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-21 16:48
 - Radial speed: 1224.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N08E05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 773.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-23 18:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 49.98 hours)
Lead Time: 44.02 hour(s)
Difference: 1.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-21T23:47Z
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